The federal retiree 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is one inflation report away from becoming official. With two of the three months that count toward the calculation already in hand, forecasters have narrowed their estimates into a fairly tight range — and the final number now comes down to a single remaining data point.
What Forecasters Are Predicting for the 2027 COLA
Estimates from several major forecasters have converged into a fairly tight band:
| Source | Estimate | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| The Senior Citizens League | 3.5% | Down from 3.6% in July and 3.8% in June |
| AARP | 3.6% | Raised from 3.5%, using current CPI-W data and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland inflation projections |
| Kiplinger (David Payne) | 3.6% | Points to elevated energy costs as one factor that could keep inflation higher |
| Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget | 3.4% | Nonpartisan budget group’s estimate following the August inflation report |
That puts these published estimates in a range of roughly 3.4% to 3.6%, with the forecasts clustering close to 3.5%.
September’s CPI-W: The Final Piece of the Puzzle
The Social Security Administration calculates the COLA by comparing the average Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) across July, August, and September to the average for the same three months a year earlier. Two of those three months are already on the books: July came in at 327.104, and August followed at 328.481, with the August index running 3.5% above its year-ago level. That leaves September as the lone remaining month needed to calculate the final COLA.
Energy prices remain one of the biggest uncertainties behind that final reading. Diesel prices have climbed to record highs, raising transportation and agricultural costs that can eventually work their way into broader consumer prices. But September’s CPI-W will reflect the entire basket of consumer goods and services, not energy alone. For now, the published forecasts suggest a final COLA somewhere in the mid-3% range.
When the Official COLA Will Be Announced
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has the September CPI report scheduled for October 14, 2026, and the Social Security Administration is expected to announce the official 2027 COLA that same day. For Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS) retirees, however, a COLA above 3% would not produce the same percentage increase that Social Security and Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) recipients receive. Under the Office of Personnel Management’s FERS COLA formula, when the applicable inflation increase is above 3%, the FERS COLA is one percentage point lower. A 3.5% headline figure, for example, would translate to roughly 2.5% for eligible FERS annuitants — a gap that looks small in any single year but can compound meaningfully over a 20-to-30-year retirement.
Readers can track the running estimate on MyFederalRetirement’s COLA Watch page. And while retirees wait on a formula, active federal employees are watching a very different fight play out in Congress over their own 2027 pay — covered in this companion piece on the pay freeze standoff.