The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 3.5 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 327.075 (1982-84=100). For the month of June, the index decreased 0.5 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
Quick summary: Based on CPI-W data through June 2026, the trend toward a estimated 2027 COLA is 3.1% for Social Security and CSRS retirees, which would translate to a FERS COLA of approximately 2.1% once the FERS reduction formula is applied. The official 2027 COLA won’t be announced by the Social Security Administration until mid-October 2026. This page is updated monthly as new CPI-W data is released.
2027 COLA Estimate at a Glance
| Retirement System | 2027 Estimated COLA (as of June 2026 data) | 2026 Actual COLA |
|---|---|---|
| Social Security | 3.1% | 2.8% |
| CSRS | 3.1% | 2.8% |
| FERS | 2.1% | 2.0% |
This estimate will move as new monthly CPI-W data comes in through September. The number that matters is the average CPI-W across July, August, and September 2026 — so nothing is final until the September figure is released in October.
Trend For Estimated 2027 COLA (FERS / CSRS / Social Security)
As of June 2026, the trend toward a 2027 COLA is:
(327.075 – 317.265) / 317.265 x 100 = 3.09 (adjusted to the nearest 1/10 of 1 percent = 3.1%)
The Consumer Price Index for July 2026 is scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026. The official 2027 COLA will be released by the Social Security Administration (SSA) in mid-October 2026. The SSA calculates the percent change between average prices in the third quarter of the current year (ending September 30) and the third quarter of the previous year.
How Is a COLA Calculated?
The Social Security Act specifies a formula for determining each COLA. COLAs are based on increases in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which is calculated monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
A COLA effective for December of the current year equals the percentage increase, if any, in the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year over the average for the third quarter of the last year in which a COLA became effective. Any increase is rounded to the nearest tenth of one percent. If there is no increase, or the rounded increase is zero, there is no COLA.
SEE ALSO: Guide to Federal Retiree COLAs: What Are They and How Are They Calculated?
Why FERS Gets a Smaller COLA Than CSRS
CSRS retirees and Social Security beneficiaries receive the same COLA percentage. FERS retirees receive a reduced version, often called the “FERS diet COLA,” based on this formula:
| If the SSA/CSRS COLA is… | The FERS COLA is… |
|---|---|
| 2% or less | The same as the SSA/CSRS COLA (no reduction) |
| Between 2% and 3% | A flat 2% |
| Above 3% | The SSA/CSRS COLA minus 1 percentage point |
Applying the current 3.1% trend: since it’s above 3%, the FERS estimate is 3.1% − 1.0% = 2.1%. That one-point gap looks small in a single year, but compounded over a 20–30 year retirement, it steadily erodes FERS purchasing power relative to CSRS and Social Security.
Note: the FERS Special Retirement Supplement, paid to some FERS retirees between their retirement date and age 62, does not receive a COLA at all, regardless of inflation.
What This Could Mean in Dollars
Using the current 3.1% Social Security/CSRS trend and the resulting 2.1% FERS estimate, here’s what a 2027 COLA could mean at a few common monthly annuity levels:
| Monthly Annuity | CSRS / Social Security Increase (3.1%) | FERS Increase (2.1%) |
|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | +$46.50/month (+$558/year) | +$31.50/month (+$378/year) |
| $2,500 | +$77.50/month (+$930/year) | +$52.50/month (+$630/year) |
| $4,000 | +$124/month (+$1,488/year) | +$84/month (+$1,008/year) |
For context, the average Social Security retirement benefit was about $2,071/month in early 2026. At a 3.1% COLA, that benefit would rise by roughly $64/month — before the Medicare Part B offset described below.
The Medicare Part B Premium Offset
A COLA increase rarely reaches your bank account in full, because the standard Medicare Part B premium typically rises at the same time — and for most beneficiaries, that premium is deducted directly from the Social Security check.
Based on the 2025 Medicare Trustees Report, the standard Part B premium is projected to increase from $202.90/month in 2026 to approximately $218.60/month in 2027 — an increase of about $15.70/month. (The official premium is set by CMS later in the year and can differ from this projection.)
Net effect example: for a retiree receiving the average $2,071 Social Security benefit, a 3.1% COLA would add about $64/month. After the projected $15.70 Part B increase, the net increase that actually shows up in the deposit is closer to $48.50/month.
Federal retirees who receive both a CSRS or FERS annuity and a separate Social Security benefit should apply this offset only against the Social Security portion, since Part B premiums aren’t deducted from CSRS/FERS annuity payments directly unless separately enrolled through OPM’s premium conversion options.
2026 CSRS / FERS COLA Announced
October 24, 2025
The 2026 federal retiree cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) was 2.8 percent for those under the Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) and 2.0 percent for those under the Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS).
This was slightly larger than the 2025 COLA, which was 2.5 percent for CSRS retirees — but the same for those under the FERS retirement system.
Read: Federal Retiree COLA History
The 2.8 percent 2026 COLA was also issued to those receiving Social Security benefits, with beneficiaries seeing the new COLA increases starting in January 2026.
Social Security began notifying people about their new benefit amount starting in early December 2025. Individuals with a personal my Social Security account can view their COLA notice online. Social Security beneficiaries receive a newly designed, simplified COLA notice — a single page, using plain and personalized language, with exact dates and dollar amounts of a person’s new benefit amount and any deductions.
Some other adjustments that take effect each January are based on the increase in average wages. For 2026, the maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax (taxable maximum) increased to $176,100 from $168,600.
What Is the Difference Between the CPI-U and the CPI-W?
The BLS describes it this way: The CPI-U is a more general index and seeks to track retail prices as they affect all urban consumers. It encompasses about 87 percent of the United States’ population. The CPI-W is a more specialized index and seeks to track retail prices as they affect urban hourly wage earners and clerical workers. It encompasses about 32 percent of the United States’ population and is a subset of the CPI-U group. The CPI-W places a slightly higher weight on food, apparel, transportation, and other goods and services. It places a slightly lower weight on housing, medical care, and recreation.