Two Social Security proposals from Congressional Democrats are getting attention again this summer, right as more estimates for the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) are coming in. Here’s what each one would do, and — importantly — what they don’t touch.
First, the 2027 COLA Outlook
The July inflation report, released August 12, gave the first of three monthly readings that will determine the 2027 Social Security COLA. Early estimates have come down slightly: The Senior Citizens League now projects 3.6%, down from 3.8% a month earlier, and AARP is projecting around 3.5%. Two more months of data are still to come before the Social Security Administration’s official announcement, expected October 14. Even at the lower end of current estimates, it would be the largest COLA since 2023, when high post-pandemic inflation drove an 8.7% increase, and well above this year’s 2.8%.
One reminder that applies to both bills below: they would affect Social Security benefits specifically. They wouldn’t change how your CSRS or FERS annuity COLA is calculated — those are set separately, and FERS retirees who are eligible for a COLA would still typically receive a reduced adjustment relative to Social Security and CSRS under the existing “diet COLA” formula.
The Social Security 2100 Act
Rep. John Larson (D-CT) reintroduced this bill (H.R. 9519) on June 29, and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) introduced the Senate version (S. 5042) on July 21. It’s a familiar plan — Larson has brought some version of it before Congress in every session since 2015, and it has never gotten a floor vote.
In broad strokes, the current version would raise Social Security benefits modestly, use a senior-focused inflation index for COLAs when it produces a bigger increase than the standard measure, raise the minimum benefit for long-term low earners, and raise additional revenue by eliminating the Social Security taxable wage cap and imposing a new Social Security tax on certain high-income investment income. Several of the benefit increases are written to run only from 2027 through 2036 rather than permanently.
The bottom line for now: it’s a marker of where the “raise benefits, raise taxes on high earners” side of the Social Security debate stands, tied to the trust fund’s projected 2032 shortfall — not legislation that’s currently close to becoming law.
The Social Security Emergency Inflation Relief Act
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) introduced this bill (S. 3078) last October, in response to the 2.8% COLA. It proposed a flat $200 monthly payment — tax-free and generally protected from garnishment or offset — for Social Security, SSI, Railroad Retirement and VA beneficiaries, along with certain federal retirement annuitants, for six months.
The catch: that six-month window was January through June 2026, and it has already passed without the bill moving out of the Senate Finance Committee. For the proposal to matter now, Congress would have to update the legislation with a new payment period — which hasn’t happened. It’s worth knowing about, but there’s nothing to act on.
What to watch
The more important date for your planning is October 14, when the Social Security Administration is expected to announce the official 2027 COLA. Neither of these bills will affect that number. If you want to track the estimate as it firms up over the next two months, that’s the more useful thing to watch than either bill’s progress in committee.