The Senior Citizen’s League’s (TSCL) model of estimating the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for retirees points to a 3.8% increase. TSCL’s 2027 COLA estimate 1 percentage point higher than the 2026 COLA. TSCL also estimates the average benefit for retirees would rise by $77.00. Social Security currently pays the average retiree $2,026.41 per month. With the predicted COLA, payments would increase to $2,103.41.
While TSCL’s current model already projects a higher COLA in 2027 than the 2.8 percent issued in 2026, average Social Security payments fall short of what it costs to live in the U.S. As an example, TSCL states rent for a one-bedroom apartment and basic living expenses, the average senior cost of living is for one person is about $2,700 per month.
SEE ALSO: 2026 Federal Retirees COLA Watch (CSRS, FERS & Social Security)
“24.8 million older Americans—more than ever—draw all their retirement income from Social Security. According to TSCL’s 2026 Senior Survey, 44 percent of them depend on Social Security for all of their income, up from 39 percent in 2025,” TSCL wrote in a press release yesterday.
TSCL’s 2026 Senior Survey estimates that 57 percent of seniors survive on less than $2,000 a month, while 13 percent get by on less than $1,000, which places an estimated 5.6 million below the federal poverty line.
“We’re seeing inflation on the rise when more than half of seniors already can’t afford basic living standards, TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said. “A 3.8 percent COLA might sound like a lot compared to last year’s 2.8 percent, but it won’t be enough to make up the difference between what seniors bring in and what they need to live with dignity. And that’s the point of the program: It’s to grant `some measure of perfection against the loss of a job and against poverty-ridden old age,` as Franklin D. Roosevelt said when he signed Social Security into law 91 years ago. Are we really able to say we’re fulfilling that goal right now?”
“Congress and the President must raise benefits so seniors can meet basic cost-of-living standards, for the good of the entire country,” Benton said. “When signing Social Security into law, President Roosevelt described the program as `a structure intended to lessen the force of possible future depressions` and `flatten out the peaks and valleys of deflation and of inflation`. In today’s world, with change coming faster than ever, most Americans would tell you that they agree.”
SEE ALSO: Guide to Federal Retiree COLAs: What Are They and How Are They Calculated?
Each month, TSCL issues a new prediction of the next COLA for Social Security using its statistical model. “Our model incorporates the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate to make its predictions,” TSCL says. The model’s predictions update throughout the year, adjusting in response to economic conditions.
The official 2027 COLA will be released by the Social Security Administration (SSA) in mid-October 2026. The SSA will calculate the percent change between average prices in the third quarter of the current year (ending on Sept. 30) with the third quarter of the previous year.