UDPATED Oct. 24, 2025: 2026 COLA ANNOUNCED
The government shutdown is delaying the announcement for the 2026 federal retiree cost-of-living adjustment which affects those retired under the Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) and the Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS).
The COLA for next year will be announced once September consumer price index information is available (which was scheduled for release on Oct. 15). Due to the federal government shutdown, the CPI data release has been rescheduled to Oct. 24.
SEE ALSO:
- 2026 COLA Watch – CSRS / FERS / Social Security
- Guide to Federal Retiree COLAs: What Are They and How Are They Calculated?
This statement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was published on Oct. 10:
“September 2025 CPI Release Rescheduled: BLS will publish the September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, October 24, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services. This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits.”
2026 COLA Estimate
The Senior Citizen’s League’s (TSCL) model of estimating the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for retirees points to a 2.7 percent increase.
TSCL’s 2026 COLA estimate issued yesterday is slightly above last year’s actual COLA, which was 2.5 percent.
The 2025 federal retiree cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) was 2.5 percent for those under the Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) and 2.0 percent for those under the Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS).
“But even with that bump, it still won’t be enough to cover the rising costs seniors face,” TSCL posted in an email announcement. “Everyday essentials like housing, healthcare, and groceries continue to climb faster than the COLA can keep up with.”
“The problem isn’t just the percentage, it’s the formula,” TSCL wrote. “The government still uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W) to calculate the COLA, even though it doesn’t reflect how seniors actually spend their money.”
Each month, TSCL issues a new prediction of the next COLA for Social Security using our statistical model. “Our model incorporates the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate to make its predictions,” TSCL says.
TSCL is calling on Congress to adopt the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) — advocating that it’s a more fair measure that would protect retirees’ buying power.
TSCL’s 2025 Senior Survey Report found that about 13 percent of seniors get by on less than $1,000 a month after taxes and deductions, which is less than the cost of a modest apartment in most cities. The research also found that 39 percent of beneficiaries depend on Social Security for 100 percent of their income.
“Seniors should be concerned as inflation continues to tick upward. TSCL’s research shows that there’s a serious disconnect between the inflation the government reports and the inflation that seniors experience every day,” said TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton. “If the government tells us that prices are rising faster, it’s likely that seniors are already feeling the crunch.”
The official 2026 COLA will be released by the Social Security Administration (SSA) on Oct. 24, 2025. The SSA will calculate the percent change between average prices in the third quarter of the current year (ending on Sept. 30) with the third quarter of the previous year.